2021 quick thoughts to myself

what I did/am doing (2021)

  • moved to New York City

    • BillyB

      • still learning to fully commit to the community

    • accepted into Norwood Club, Select, Parlor Social

      • maintaining Select and Parlor Social going forward

  • found a new therapist (recognized how much in-person sessions benefit me and thus won’t be seeing my therapist in SF)

  • consistently returning to the gym

    • crossed 25 Peloton rides since Aug

    • 100+ goal for 2022

  • joined a new baseball team

    • hit a ball the furthest i’ve hit one with a wooden bat

    • working on hip flexor mobility

  • started following F1

  • cooking 3+ meals a week without instructions

    • cooking for others/hosting dinners

  • developed 11 rolls of film

    • started shooting Super8

  • started new job

  • FY net profitable on sportscards

  • rejoined the Church

  • furthered my understanding on LGBTQ+ and being an ally

what I didn’t do

  • date someone

  • get COVID (four days left, fingers crossed)

  • write as much as I wanted to

  • max out my 401k

  • effectively plan out my diet/food habits

  • pitch as well as I wanted to

    • - leg and - core strength for stamina, + arm/shoulder durability

  • read a book a month

  • fully align my closet with a specific style (dark americana/prep?)

  • get a skincare routine down

what I want to do (2022)

  • take subjective risks

    • go on (a) date(s)

    • push my body to reach maximums in the gym

    • intentionally meet someone new every month

  • decide on whether I want to pursue an MBA

    • international (INSEAD, LBS, HEC?)

    • do I even want to consider domestic?

  • specific conscious savings

    • start putting money into the family 529

    • consciously start to save for a future wedding ring (? lmao)

    • spend less than $700 on drinks/food a month

  • be my best self in Italy (June 2022)

    • bring a +1 to Italy wedding

    • Lose 20lbs (tracking since Aug ‘21)

    • mentally, physically, emotionally at a peak

    • record Italy in film, both 35MM, 120MM, and Super 8

  • narrow down the card collection

    • Soto, Curry, Griffey, Leclerc/Ferrari

  • get to know my neighbors and doormen/women

    • really i just want them to know that i care for them and value them

      • tbd on how to show this

  • continue active effort into further understanding the following concepts, (continue work w therapist, close friends on these)

    • feminism from a male pov

    • wealth privilege

    • male privilege

    • why i so often feel the need to be contrarian

  • call my living grandparents at least once a month

    • record stories via Storyworth (?)

  • commit to building relationships in the Church

  • solo travel to a new country again

    • keep countries visited > age

  • start acting again?

    • commercials/tv episodes extra

  • write more

what I won’t do

  • withdraw any cryptocurrency or index funds

  • gatekeep interests of others

  • binge eat when inebriated

  • argue with strangers on the internet over sports

  • lyft/uber sober. make time a priority

  • be disappointed if I fail.

nutty stretch goals

  • end up in the NYT for something positive

    • Modern Love

    • Opinion

    • tbd

  • pitch four 0 ERA innings in a row, between a maximum of two games

  • start a scholarship?

  • find a way to perform

the annual sit-n-write

tldr; i spent the fall fishing for lobs instead of fishing for jobs. it was cold and physically taxing.

The horizon, shrouded between the darkness of night and the waves of the Atlantic, is nigh impossible to distinguish before dawn. Outside of an occasional beam from a distant lighthouse and the constellations twinkling above, there is nothing shining into the expanse of cold darkness lying before me. The hum of pickup trucks crescendos into a screeching halt, and insulated by hot coffee and wool sweaters, fishermen arrive at the pier. Their breath's condensation lingers in the frigid air as we climb into skiffs and motor to our vessels moored in deeper water.

Ignition. The larger beasts awaken. Brilliance emits from the headlights. The radio echoes its country tunes into the silence, and my nostrils are awoken by the wretched cocktail of dead fish and ammonia. The day has begun.

_________________________________________________________________________

I grew up in Washington, under the shadow of the Issaquah Salmon Hatchery. The basics of food systems were ingrained in me from a young age, thanks to the Salmon Days festival, and my parents nurtured me with varieties of seafood. It wasn't until my family visited our former neighbors in Boston that my craving for lobster began. Since then, the spiny, clawed Homarus americanus quickly became the star of seafood in my life, and has maintained its ranking at the pinnacle of my personal Seafood Power Rankings.

COVID-19 took a swipe at my career, and like many, I toyed with the idea of other career paths. I've always been fascinated by the supply chain of goods. I love seafood. What would an adventure of fishing, film photography, and frosty temperatures look like? One could plausibly argue that these months encapsulated my life experience. A little unstructured, mostly spontaneous, and definitely unique (or so I thought).

Within a span of a week in September, I told my parents my idea. I'd become a lobsterman for a season, earn enough to keep me financially stable, and enjoy the fall colors. I exhausted my usual resources and ended up using Furnished Finder to land a room, a tool initially developed for traveling nurses. Obviously not a nurse, it took a bit of convincing and haggling to find a room. Luckily, finding the job was surprisingly easy.

Imagine a Craigslist job posting in its most stereotypical form. No name attached, a small picture of a boat, 10 digits to call, and exactly 12 words in lowercase —

"help wanted on lobster boat. must have drivers license unless in area"

I rang the number, the captain picked up, said "Ayuh, call me the day before you're ready to go out." It was that simple.

To some, the housing and job situations seemed sketchy, but to me, that's embracing the adventure. I hurriedly packed a suitcase and shuttled myself across the country to Arundel, ME. The day I arrived at my house, I gave my captain a call, and he told me to be at the docks the next day at 3:30am with a packed lunch and lots of energy.

Energy? I can bring it.

Packed lunch? Easy.

3:30am? Not my strong suit, but I can go to bed early, right?

Nope. My Seahawks were selected to play Sunday Night Football against the Patriots that first night. That thrilling matchup ended with my adrenaline surging through my body at about 12:30am ET. That also meant that my first day on the boat would be completed at the intersection of Sleepdeprived Street and Fivehourenergy Avenue.

3:00am — An Android alarm can only be snoozed for so long. After slogging my way out of bed, I don a thermal shirt, layer with another shirt, layer again, and layer a hoodie over that. My captain told me to wear multiple layers that I'll never want to wear again outside of lobstering. Early mornings in October can drop to the mid 30s. In the heart of fall and winter it drops lower. Lord, have mercy.

Mark Twain famously said, "the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco."

I had just finished four years in the Bay Area and I believe I am qualified to make this distinction. I'm sorry, Mr. Twain — the coldest winter one can spend is not a summer in San Francisco, but almost assuredly is an early morning in deep fall, off the coast of Maine.

After commuting down to the docks at Cape Porpoise and throwing on my rubber boots, I run into the other early risers. Captain John greets me with an "ayuh." Cliff, an experienced sternman will join us once every other week, and is here to teach me the ropes. Most days, it'd end up being just me and my captain, floating the skiff out to his boat, moored in the darkness.

4:00am — Showtime. The lights on the South Wind IV illuminate, and the engine is revving. Other fishing vessels also begin their days and form a line for the loading dock.

After bringing the boat dockside, I wheel out the most abhorrent, repulsive, foul-smelling dead fish you will ever smell festering inside large, blue 55gal drums. I honestly thought I knew what rotten fish smelled like — I can confidently say that I did not. It reeked. I cannot verbalize how bad this smelled.

We hoist one drum full of redfish, one full of skate, and one split between haddock and pogies. I also grab a few buckets full of bagged pig fatbacks onto the boat.

4:15am — We sail out about 10mi east, and the radio blares WPOR 101.9, "Today's Country!" On our way to the trawls of pots, I throw on my Grundens bib and a pair of thin rubber gloves. As the manageable waves bump us from side to side, I reach my arms into the vats of dead fish. Each of the 20 spudgers will have a pogie, a skate, two redfish, another skate, some haddock, and then the fatback bag, in that specific order. The skates and fatbacks will last a long time, while the redfish and haddock will usually be eaten quickly, or wither away in the briny sea.

5:15am — The sun slowly awakens, a couple hours too late if you ask me. The temperature climbs from freezing to a manageable chill.

By using a computer system, John is able to find a general vicinity of where his 800 traps lie. He's reached the maximum number of lobster traps a commercial fisherman can lay out is but we'll only harvest 200 a day. Sitting on silt and bookended by two buoys 300ft above them are the metal traps full of crustacean gold. A lobster trap is about 2'x2'x4' and will weigh 50-60lbs. Historically the traps were made of wood, but ones today are made of meshed wire. Our trawls are marked by buoys with a red top, white middle, and neon green bottom, though it's significantly harder to find them if the sun isn't up yet, or when there's a swell.

After identifying one of our trawls, I (attempt to) snag the buoy out of the water with a mooring hook and attach it to the winch. If I miss, it'll take another minute or two to turn the vessel around, and that can be costly. The winch begins furiously pulling up the rope covered in grime, while I scrub the buoy of moss.

Creaking and squeaking, our pully can't bring the trap all the way onto the boat. I reach over the starboard edge, and essentially power-clean the trap onto our boat, ensuring the trap's rope doesn't get entangled in the winch. I'll turn the trap to fit on the edge of our boat and open it up.

On a good day, there may be a lobster or ten in a trap. On a bad day, there will be a lobster or ten in an entire trawl. John tosses the undersized lobsters, any lobster with eggs, and any lobster that has a notch in the tail back into the ocean. We make a v-shaped notch in the tail flippers of egg-bearing female lobsters that we catch. The tail remains marked even after she has hatched her eggs, so future lobstermen can quickly identify that this is a breeding lobster. The efforts to increase lobster sustainability were a welcome surprise. We'll keep our crustacean friends who have carpaces measuring 3.25in to 5in, claws or not, and throw them into a drum.

As he sorts through the lobster catch, I rebait the trap with the spudger, tie the bait onto a thread, and ensure that none of the bait is able to be eaten from outside the trap. My Cub Scout knowledge was lost in the years, so I had to relearn the basic half-hitch and full-hitch knots. When the trap is rebaited, I lug the trap and carry it to the back half of the boat, where I'll line the traps up in a row of five. It's crucial to keep the traps lined up with the rope end facing out, so they're able to fall off the stern in order. By the time I've carried the iron cage to the stern and lined it up, another trap is waiting to be pulled up on the side of the boat. I curse to myself, knowing that I'm behind schedule and tiring already.

The most dangerous part of lobstering is watching the rope. After pulling and rebaiting 20 traps, then moving them to the stern, we hit the gas and start moving to the next trawl. If your foot gets caught in the rope as the lobster traps are drawn back into the ocean, you will be pulled in, you will be brought to the bottom of the ocean, and you will perish. By the time the boat is turned around, the winch is hooked up and the rope is pulling you back in, you'll have drowned in the frigid waters. So, when the captain says we're going, you step away from the rope, and watch as the buoy, anchors, and traps are pulled back into the water.

An experienced sternman will be able to accomplish an entire trawl from buoy-pull to trap-set in about 20 mins. I have no comment on how long a trawl takes little ol' me.

6:00am to 6:15am — Even after a couple trawls, I'm huffing and puffing. We sail 10 minutes to the next trawl and I wish I could use this time to rest, but I need to rebait the spudgers, and then rubber-band the lobsters. The rebaiting stinks (literally and figuratively), but I enjoy the banding. Lobsters have a larger crusher claw, and a smaller scissor claw, and each claw is banded with a biodegradable rubber band. The lobsters are thrown into a tank and I'll shout out the count once no more remain, to which John will nod and give me another, "Ayuh." If "the lobs are crawlin'" and it's been a good trawl, we may pull 40+ keepers. I've also had dead trawls where we get no more than 5 keepers over the 20 traps. It can be hit or miss, as the season, tides, and other factors (Hurricane Teddy) mess with our trawls.

2:00pm — We repeat this process for the ten trawls, and then (finally) sail back to port. I organize the lobsters into crates. Each crate carries 90lbs of the crustaceans. We'll typically catch 4 crates of lobster, or around 300 total lobsters in a day. I've heard legends of up to 40 crates during ridiculous days, in which the entire tank underneath the deck is used to house lobsters instead of keeping them in tanks above deck, but that didn't happen while I was there. Once crated, I clean the stern of the boat, move the winch, and brush the deck. Yo-ho, yo-ho, a sternman's life for me.

2:45pm — When we reach our port, we beeline to the station they call the "Lobster Car". This is a wholesale buyer (but part of the same family's operation) who divides the catch by softshell and hardshells, and then measures our catch into exactly 90lbs per crate. COVID took a very large toll on this industry. The demand isn't there because there are no restaurants to buy the lobsters, and the prices are lower as a result. Softshell lobsters went about $4.50/lb this season, and hardshells may be around $6.50/lb. The captain is paid in cash and sternmen get a percentage of the cut.

The lobsters end up being driven to a warehouse a mile from the pier. Mentioned before, this entire operation is a family affair, which I find fascinating. It's owned by three brothers, two of which (incl. John) are full-time lobstermen and have lived this life the past 40+ years. The third brother runs the bait supply and lobster distribution. He works with suppliers up and down the east coast to get the redfish, herring, haddock, skate, pogies, etc., and then store them in freezers. The same operation will operate the Lobster Car, and will buy the lobsters from the fishermen. They then sell the lobsters anywhere in the world, with free overnight shipping. They have a few trucks that they drive up and down the east coast, dropping off lobsters as needed. These types of operations and co-ops are common throughout the commercial lobstering industry.

3:30pm — By this time, I'm exhausted, but am back onshore. I walk over to the pier's seafood shack (owned by, you guessed it, the family's company) and order the seafood chowder, and if I'm feeling vengeful, a lobster roll. This is by far the highlight of my day. The silky chowder with bits of haddock, lobster, and scallops nourishes my weary soul. There is no better chowder nor lobster roll in the world and you cannot convince me otherwise.

I'd like to say the days get easier over time, but they only partially do. At the end of the work day, my arms have no strength left, my shoulders hurt, my fingers have been pinched, and my back is aching. Oddly enough, my mind is alert and awake. Do you remember taking finals in college and being mentally exhausted after taking them, and maybe going on a run to release stress? This is the opposite of that. I am physically broken, but wouldn't mind reading a book.

I drive home, questioning why I chose to do this, and filling my car with the stench of rotten fish. My host immediately begs me to shower and wash my clothes, to which I oblige. Even after being washed immediately, my clothes will still smell of dead fish and seawater. John was right; I will no longer wear these clothes outside of fishing. I'll pull my hoodie and jeans out of the dryer, and toss them in a corner in my room where they won't stink up the rest of my clothes in drawers.

6:30pm sharp — When half past six rolls around, the weather reports are released and my captain calls me if we're going out the next day. I'll make dinner, and try to be in bed by 8pm, unless the Seahawks are playing, in which case I'll head out to buy a Five Hour Energy, knowing I'll later regret this decision. For some reason, they were slotted into Sunday/Monday/Thursday Night Football more often than usual. This was extremely detrimental to my sleep.

The life of a lobsterman is arduous and my respect for the men and women working in this industry has skyrocketed. My back and shoulders were consistently sore, my wrists hurt, and my sleep schedule was so far off that I was waking up when my friends on the west coast are going to bed. It's hard labor, icy mornings, and long hours, and then the reward is all dependent on a catch you can't really control. Add being a year-round profession, and the fact they'll only stop for high winds and/or hurricanes? It's a rough going.

Comparing to "regular" life — In 2021, I've begun a new job back within the familiar confines of Excel worksheets, but the contrast of working as a lobsterman vs. as a financial analyst lives daily in my head. During my time in Maine, I asked my captain and other sternmen if they had heard of Airbnb or Accenture, to which they all said no. I received exactly zero work-related emails. There were no SQL queries, pivot tables, nor business cases during my time lobstering. There were no Zoom calls, and certainly no Powerpoint presentations. It's obviously a completely different environment, and it was pleasantly refreshing to escape the world of corporate America.

Off the boat, I had a blast in Maine and highly recommend visiting to anyone. The pristine coastline during New England falls is unmatched, and the driving the Kancamagus was a joy. I took too many film pictures and ate too few lobsters, even at one a day. In my free time, I enjoyed writing to my middle-school teachers to thank them for their investment in me, and reading up on the science behind the Enneagram personality test. I also got rear-ended resulting in my rental car being totaled, and had ridiculous lobster feasts with extended family. To say my fall Down East was eventful would be downplaying it.

I hope my experience highlights these incredibly tough, generational businesses run by resilient men and women. I have the utmost respect for the people involved in the consumable supply chain industries. Lobsters are expensive, but they are delicious.

If you have questions about my experience, or want an easy lobster recipe, I'd love to chat!

If you enjoyed this, please give Luna Soley's essay in The Outside a read. She is an unbelievable student-writer who shared a similar experience.


The Side Hustle - Ink on Cardboard

The running joke in the Bay Area is that, in order to afford living here, one must have a profitable side hustle. Luckily for me, I recently how realized my hobby could become some extra cash. Graded sports cards are underutilized investment vehicles that have a strong demand, with a supply that hasn't caught up - this is my breakdown of why I'm in both the hobby and hustle of sports cards.

If you know me, you probably know my room is littered with copies of sports cards in an semi-organized manner. I've always loved sports, particularly baseball. Growing up in the nineties and aughts, society was inundated with the "Junk Era" of sports cards. Similar to Beanie Babies and other collectibles, there were millions of cards produced and a hobby shop on every other street corner. Unfortunately, the game of baseball itself became marred by steroid usage, and the massive overproduction of cardboard caused the vast majority of these cards to become worthless. That was a perfect petri-dish for an eight year old kid who idolizes athletes and doesn't care about worth. I could sit for hours reading statistics on the backs of cards. I eventually lost some interest as I grew up through high school/college and realized I wasn't going to play in the MLB, but still kept the cards tucked away in a box.

Cards as a hobby - The card on the right is a 1991 card of Ken Griffey Jr., manufactured by Topps. It is in utterly horrible condition, and received the lowest grade possible of "Poor - 1". I got it graded/encased because it's the first card my dad ever gave me. It has absolutely no financial worth, but is completely sentimental and the cornerstone of my collection. If a fire occurred in my apartment and I could grab one thing, it would be this, no question.

I love cards as a hobby because they act as a talisman to connect me with some of my fondest memories. Every time I see this card I remember being with my dad at Griffey's last hit, walking off the Blue Jays in fall of 2010. I strongly remember the time when my mom came home and surprised me with a pack of cards, which I opened sitting and found pulled an all-star Sammy Sosa. When I see a Russell Wilson card it teleports me to giving one of my fraternity brothers a massive hug after our Seahawks won Superbowl 48. I recall occasions of sitting with close friends and pulling special cards.

The list of memories I attach to cards is endless, and the connection between the hobby and treasured memories in my life is extremely potent. Better yet, they likely always will be, even if my favorite teams are stripped away and sent to Oklahoma City.

Cards as a hustle - My previous post on LinkedIn was five years ago and took a look at millennials and investing in the stock market. While I fully believe that the stock market is an efficient and logical place to invest money, I can't tell you it's that it's fun to do so. Let me know when you see a fantasy stocks league. People don't cheer from the sidelines for companies like they do athletes. If I don't have any investment in, for example, $LOW, I personally don't really care about how well Lowe's does. But sports? Oh man, people love sports, people like following story-lines, and people will cheer for their home team through and through. In my opinion, this pandemic has really emphasized how much the world, particularly the USA loves following professional sports. Sidenote: In my opinion, the fact that we're cutting corners to risk having sports during this pandemic is absurd. But how can I use this hobby to make money? First, let's dive into the basic understanding of the sports card world.

Supply: Sports cards are typically manufactured by a few major companies and put into packs, which consumers can open. Easy enough to understand. The end consumer typically takes a loss here, as there are usually long odds for hitting an autograph or short printed parallel. Many including myself view this as gambling. But, at the end of the day, let's say you've gotten lucky enough to land yourself a card.

Separately, a newer trend I find fascinating is "group breaking", in which a distributor or shop owner ("breaker") will procure boxes of packs from the manufacturer, and open those packs for consumers who have bought into the break. Each customer can buy their team in a "break", claiming the cards for that team. Some consumers will pick teams to chase "hits" and will pay for a team that has a hot rookie, or Hall of Famers' autographs in the checklist, in hopes of there one being in the packs.

Demand: There's various demand for different cards. Some people want a personal collection of their favorite player/team - these are the purists who don't affect the market too much as they'll buy/sell when they choose to. Some people want the hot prospect or rookie to invest in and resell down the road- these are the investors. There are plenty of other reasons, but similar to stocks, the market is dynamic and reacts to performance on the field, speculation, and risk.

Marketplace: In order to exchange money for cards, we need an accepted marketplace. In today's world, that marketplace is primarily eBay, with in-person conventions, forums, and Facebook groups also providing places to connect with others. In the past, cards were usually priced by their "book value". Beckett is a company that sold magazines/books with updated price points. Fortunately, it's 2020 and the current values are visible and public through tools like eBay sold sales, which allows consumers to get a realtime idea of what a particular card may be worth.

Summary: I pull a card out of a pack (or a breaker does for me). I want to sell it because I'm not too high on the player. I can use any of said marketplaces to find someone who values it. Similar to the stock market, investors can buy a card and hold it, hoping the player will improve, be named an all-star, win a championship, MVP award or eventual Hall of Fame induction. It's speculative, and a gamble, dependent on news and statistics and expectations. Although I spent years executing this strategy, just like stocks, I find this to be somewhat uninvolved. I personally can't impact the price of my cards/shares I hold.

I don't play in the professional league, so I have no direct effect on the player's performance in which I hold stock :: I don't work for a company, so I have no direct effect on that company's financials (thus no effect on stock's price)

The consultant in me continued to ask the question "How can I be involved with the value-chain, and how do I manage the risk of this ink-on-cardboard portfolio?"

In the world of collectibles, having something in mint condition is king. For cards, grading services such as BGS (Beckett Grading Services), PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator) exist. They will grade the corners, edges, surface, and centering of a card, as well as an autograph if there is one. These are far and away the two primary and most respected grading services though there has been conspiracy around doctoring cards lately. The grading companies judge each aspect of a card on a 1 to 10 scale, with halfsteps such as 5.5, 6.0, 6.5, 7.0 and so-forth. A grade of a 9.5+ is usually called a Gem. A 10 will be a Gem Mint. There's other accepted terminology, but for modern-day cards from 2010-pres, a BGS 9.5 or a PSA 9 is generally accepted as an average card. Anything above that will go for a premium. For older vintage cards, it will depend on the year/set, as production quality has dramatically increased over time. Once the grading company grades the card and sends it back to the owner, the grading service will update it in a registry, so we can see how our cards stack up against other cards of the same likeness that were submitted. We'll come back to the population reports.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a younger NBA star, who has the size, strength, and potential to be the face of the league a la MJ, Kobe, and LeBron. If I think a Giannis card in my collection is in great condition, I'll submit it for grading. The grading cost will be standardized on a scale, based on how quickly I can expect the card back by. If I want it back in five business days, it'll cost $90. This is often used for products that were just released, and owners want to get graded cards into the marketplace ASAP. If I can wait for a bulk shipment with no guaranteed return date, it'll cost $13. The latter is my preferred option from a cost-basis, as I'll send cards for grading in the sport's offseason, and then hopefully have them back at the beginning of the season, hoping the players perform well. Of course, there is no guarantee on the grade, so for a couple months I'll sit twiddling my thumbs and crossing my fingers until I get them back.

I strongly believe Giannis is a great buy because of his ability to improve, his likeliness to win another MVP this shortened season, and his potential to eventually win a championship. If any or all of those things happen, there will be an increase in demand, thus shooting the prices higher. Unfortunately for me, Giannis rookie cards have exponentially increased in price over the next few years, because many people have the same notion. Right now, I can't afford a rookie card, so I'll have to figure out how to identify the strongest card candidates outside of those.

For current superstars such as Mike Trout, Giannis, LeBron James, Tom Brady, and Sidney Crosby, there is a steep drop-off from their rookie years to their second years, but much softer decline from their second to third years etc. For rookies in their first or second year who have high potential but high volatility, their cards can be had at a lower spending tier.

Here's where I saw the opportunity to add value. For the folks at home who didn't go through Accounting 201, Profit = Revenue - Cost. If I am holding a Giannis card, it may shoot up 10% by the end of the season. I will have no increase in cost other than storage (it's a piece of cardboard, it costs me 0 to store). My revenue will have increased by 10%. Awesome, but it carries some risk. What if Giannis gets injured? What if he gets sick? What if he just doesn't have a good season?

I don’t actually submit the cards myself for grading, I have someone I know and trust do it because he does this for a living, utilizes jewelers loupes, and has consistently high returned grades. He’ll let me know if the cards I send him are worth grading or not.

When I choose to submit/grade a card, my assumption is that the value of the card will go up. Unfortunately, my cost of obtaining that card also went up, so in order to increase profit I need to have an equal-or-greater increase in the revenue. Luckily, for the right cards, the increase in revenue is significantly higher, coupled with the fact that the high-ceiling of a player like Giannis will lead to future increases. Begs the question, how do I identify these cards with the highest possible return? NB - COVID has dramatically affected the sports card market and prices across the board have literally doubled or more over the past months. I'm unable to identify consistent reasons why.

Let's hop back to the population reports produced by grading services. After I filter down, they'll tell me how many cards got which grade. I then download that report and plug it into Excel. I massage the data to show me, of all the cards submitted across every set and year, which ones are the most likely to Gem (9+) at PSA. This will tell me the percentage of raw cards that turned into Gems and Gem Mts (10), and will give me a ballpark estimate of what rate a card will gem at.

From left to right, we've got the year & set name, the card and parallel identifier, and the checklist identifier. Then I filter down just to see the submission numbers for the Mints (9) and Gem Mts (10), and calculate percentages. After that's done, I'll head to eBay where I can view final sales. I'll manually plug in the average of the last three sales for the 10 and 9 grades. Add the cost of a grading fee, the eBay selling fees, and the cost of the raw card. I'm pretty confident in my submitter's ability to get 9s and 10s.


After I fill in all the prices and run the formula, I can see that, if I were to buy a 2018 Panini Prizm Giannis Antetokounmpo (highlighted card), I can expect a return of around 433.14% assuming the demand for the card stays the same. That's for his 5th year card. Sweet! This model shows me I can take a $7 investment in a raw card, and make it a $71 card if it Gem Mints, or a $21 card if it Gems. The expected revenue given the ratios would be $63.91, and the expected profit would be $30.32. The hunt then begins to find a small lot of raw cards that haven't been graded, and purchase them around the raw cost. How do I figure that out? That's a secret I'll never tell. Sorry.

In my opinion, a $7 buy-in of the right 5th year Giannis card is well worth it. If you look at the chart above, the 2018 Panini Revolution Giannis (different set, same year) has even better expected returns. Add in the fact that I think Giannis will improve, he'll win this year's MVP and others, and might win a championship, and I can speculate that the demand for his cards will go up. Now, if I hold the raw cards, and these cards shoot up to $11 each by the end of this season, that's a solid increase, but I'll still be hurting because of expected selling fees on eBay/Paypal. By grading the cards, they significantly increase in value to offset selling fees, and end up as a more profitable product. My $7 becomes $70+ (again, assuming no injuries etc. in the near future, season plays out, etc.), which totals to $30 in profit per card. If I'm impatient or think I can buy low, I may even buy an already-graded card or two.

Not only does the $7 raw 5th year card have a high ceiling, and high rate of gem return, but it's a modest investment instead of the $2,000 raw rookie card of the same player. It allows me to buy into the speculation and potential and a minimal price point

Timing the grading is also part of the risk. If a product comes out and we don't have enough of a turnaround time to grade, we're stuck with the following scenario- I was/am a massive believer in the Seattle Mariners' rookie Kyle Lewis. I bought as much as I could at less than a dollar a rookie card, because I thought if he performs well the profits are potentially there. Luckily for me, he's come out of the gates mashing the baseball and is a strong contender for Rookie of the Year. I find this particular case absolutely fascinating because nobody including myself saw Kyle Lewis's catching fire as much as he is. If you're to search marketplaces, there are almost no copies of this graded rookie card, which is leading to an incredibly high price point. Unluckily for me, I sent a large lot of rookie cards to get graded in June, which means they're still getting graded while the very few available in the marketplace are sky high in prices. Now I'm stuck waiting, hoping that these cards not only grade well, but are back in time before the market loses interest.

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My math and thinking says that by identifying cards which can have value added to them, I'm able to spread out my investment risk and hopefully increase my profits. That's not wholly why I play this game, though. At the end of the day, my $DIS stock shares aren't conversation pieces as much as a perfectly graded PSA 10 Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card can be. I'm not suggesting to get into this world as investment vehicles using the method I'm using unless you really are truly interested and have the time, but I am a strong proponent of using the occasional sports card as investment vehicles. They have shown to have solid returns, and they're way more fun than stocks. If I'm being honest, the pandemic has made this speculation both fun and risky. Any team can win an MLB World Series (except the Mariners because we're cursed), which leads to more theorizing of young rookies who can carry their team to the playoffs or get hot for a shortened season.

Overall, there are a ton of assumptions and a little flawed logic, but the overarching points ring true. I don't spend time cheering for companies (sans Airbnb, love you guys to death and will cheer you on forever!), but I do spend lots of time watching sports and cheering for teams/players/narratives. Finding a way to create value and turn the hobby of sports cards into a sustainable side-gig has been a blast for me. I think the hobby world of sports card collecting will continue to grow, and investing using my strategy is one way I love to stay involved with sports while making a somewhat-logically backed financial decision.

Caveats: Of course, not every card is graded - the cards that are shown in the pop report are often higher quality and more likely to gem than an average one. I don't have perfect eyes, my submitter doesn't have perfect eyes, and the graders aren't robots- they have good and bad days. I don't know how many people have resubmitted the same card for grading, in hopes of a better grade. Oftentimes, I don't know the total population/production for a card. Part of this market is projecting how well players will do. There are no athletes' earning reports. Tons of other factors I just don't know. I'm okay accepting those unknowns, and try to work those into my model separately.

And before you ask, sorry, your 1985-1999 cards are likely not valuable at all even if graded, unless they have Ken Griffey Jr. on them.

Mr. Mehdi, the Keeper

After a 2 year hiatus of focused writing, I’ve remembered how much of a positive impact it has in my life. It encourages my reflection, forces me to concentrate my thoughts, and allows me to share my life with the rest of the world. So, for the first time in about 2 years, here’s another adventure from my life, this time, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Overlooking the Spice Bazaar in the Eminonu district of Istanbul stands the old Buyuk Valide Han, an Ottoman square that has housed traders and merchants for over 400 years.

Thanks in part to Daniel Craig and the 2012 James Bond film, Skyfall, the backstreet market has received a slight increase in tourism over the past few years. Bond (Craig) flies through Buyuk Valide Han on his bike, traversing up staircases and then onto roofs at the Grand Bazaar to chase a man who has a list of undercover agents.

Skyfall

Mendes, Sam, director. Skyfall. Metro Goldwyn Mayer ; Columbia ; Albert R. Broccoli's Eon Productions LTD., 2012.

While the film is enticing and the action ranks highly among the Bond chase-scene aficionados (YouTube commenters), the quick pace leaves the viewers with minuscule glimpses of the surroundings and particularly breathtaking views.

Often called the best view of Istanbul, the top of Buyuk Valide Han has a viewpoint at the rooftop that Instagrammers and urban explorers alike sought to get to. This can prove to be rather difficult when the area is primarily workshops and residential spaces that are frequently used by locals.

If you were to look up Buyuk Valide Han reviews for the sunrise, there are two frequent comments you will find. 1) You will witness one of the picturesque sunrises of your life and 2) It is nearly impossible to find the entrance to the top without direction. It is even more difficult when the urban explorer chooses to search for the market at 6am in the pitch black, unlit streets with little knowledge of Turkish.

In my experience, there is nothing more daunting than traversing an unknown, abandoned building in the dim hours of the morning with no understanding of the local language, and having your phone as the only light source. I honestly felt like a video game character on a quest, navigating through dark hallways and climbing up stairs in hopes of finding the door to the rooftop. The only sounds were grunts of blacksmiths and craftsmen at work, toiling away to make handmade goods to bring to the Grand Bazaar hours later. There were seriously moments where I felt like I was about to be robbed around the next corner, or I’d run into some company I was not supposed to run into. It was eerie.

Enter Mr. Mehdi (click link to see the cutest old man ever).

70 years old, standing at about 158cm (5’2”), and equipped with the cutest, friendliest voice you will ever imagine, Mr. Mehdi is the keeper of the view. Mr. Mehdi stands watch at a behemoth iron gate leading to the top, and only by slipping him a few Turkish Lira ($1) , would he allow you to enter using his keys.

Unfortunately, due to tourists and locals going up and jumping on the rooftop domes, the original way up to the rooftop has been closed. Roofs have been broken, people have gotten injured, and the government has put the rooftop under “restoration", except no progress has been made at all in a couple years. It’s essentially closed.

Nevertheless, the enterprising Mr. Mehdi found another rooftop on the opposite side of the square, where he continues to guide wanderers to the most outstanding viewpoint of Istanbul. You can see the tops of the religious bastions the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia, as well as a perfect shot of the Yeni Cami. You can feel the bustle and trade at the Spice Bazaar as well as the famed 700-year old Grand Bazaar. You can hear the ferries on the Bosphorus and through the Golden Horn. You stare into Galata Tower in its 1550th year of existence.

I love how you can witness the cosmopolitan heart of humanity across centuries and millennia in a simple view. Mr. Mehdi will offer you a cup of Cay (“chai”) which is the traditional Turkish black tea. Cuddle with one of his tens of kittens on your lap while you overlook the world, or let one climb into your bag and claw at you while you try to wake him from his nap.

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across the golden horn

Some stranger ruining the beautiful view

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Check meow-t

Good thing I’m not allergic to cats at all…



Mr. Mehdi, I highly doubt you’ll ever read this but thank you for sharing your rooftop with the world. It encompasses eons of culture and heart.